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Here’s How Each Team Can Make It to the Next Round of the World Cup

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The final round of the group stage of the World Cup brings with it a multitude of possibilities for each team to advance in the tournament.

This year’s tournament in particular—which has already seen thrilling last-minute goals, stunning comebacks, and shock defeats of favorites—is anything but predictable. And with so many ways it can play out, every kick over the next four days will matter.

The group stage in its current form actually makes up most of the World Cup, comprising 48 of the 64 games. Within each group of four teams, it’s a round-robin-style competition to finish in the top two spots based on points: three points are earned for a win, one for a draw, and zero for a loss. The bottom two teams from each of the eight groups are eliminated from the tournament.

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And while finishing first or second ensures a team moves on to the Round of 16, the specific order in which they advance is important, too. The winner of Group A plays the runner-up of Group B, the runner-up of A plays the winner of B, and so on for Groups C and D, E and F, and G and H.

There’s something special about the final round. As of Monday evening, each team in all eight groups has faced off against two other teams in their group and has one remaining game to accumulate any more points. The stakes are raised for these third matchups, as every team knows it’s their last chance to do what they need to do to stay in the tournament. And unlike in the first two rounds, the final two matches for each group are played simultaneously, making it a nerve-wracking 90 minutes for all teams involved—and for the fans who are trying to monitor every potential outcome.

Read More: Team USA’s World Cup Fate Is in Their Own Hands Following Tie With England

Often teams in a group finish with the same number of points, but unlike in the knockout stage, there are no penalty shootouts. In the event of a tie on points in the group stage, places are determined by a series of tiebreakers. First, total goal difference (all of the team’s goals scored across their three matches minus all of their goals conceded). If still tied, just the number of goals scored are considered. If still tied, the teams’ head-to-head results determine which finishes ahead of the other.

FIFA introduced a fourth “fair play” tiebreaker during the last World Cup. According to FIFA’s website, “the team that has accumulated the fewest indiscipline points wins (a yellow card equals 1 point, a red card shown for two yellows equals 3 points, a direct red card equals 4 points and a direct red card shown to a player who was already on a yellow equals 5 points).” If somehow teams were still tied, which finishes ahead of the other would theoretically be determined by a drawing of lots, though no team has ever been eliminated from a World Cup that way.

Here’s a guide to all the different potential outcomes this week, listed in order of most likely to least likely, based on a model by American data analysis website FiveThirtyEight. But with so many upsets thus far in the competition, don’t count out the underdogs.

Group A

In Group A, World Cup host nation Qatar (currently with 0 points) has no chance of advancing to the knockout stage of the competition, while group leader Netherlands (4 points) is very likely to advance. Ecuador (4 points) will stay in the competition with a draw or a win against Senegal, while Senegal (3 points) needs to beat Ecuador to move on to the next round.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, November 29.

Qatar v Ecuador: Group A - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Ayman Aref—NurPhoto/Getty ImagesFans of the Qatar national team during the World Cup the opening match between the host nation and Ecuador at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 20, 2022.

[28.86%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Ecuador beats Senegal: Both Netherlands (7 points) and Ecuador (7 points) advance, with the order determined by which team wins by more goals in their final match. If they both win by the same margin, whichever team scores more goals in their final match finishes first in the group. If they both win by the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received only two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[25.74%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Ecuador draws Senegal: Netherlands (7 points) win the group. Ecuador (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[23.4%] Netherlands beats Qatar, Senegal beats Ecuador: Netherlands (7 points) win the group. Senegal (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.55%] Netherlands draws Qatar, Ecuador beats Senegal: Ecuador (7 points) wins the group. Netherlands (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.95%] Netherlands draws Qatar, Ecuador draws Senegal: Both Netherlands (5 points) and Ecuador (5 points) advance, with the order determined by which team scores more goals in their final match. If they both draw with the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received only two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[4.5%] Netherlands draw Qatar, Senegal beats Ecuador: Senegal (6 points) wins the group. Netherlands (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.59%] Qatar beats Netherlands, Ecuador beats Senega: Ecuador (7 points) wins the group. Netherlands (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.31%] Qatar beats Netherlands, Ecuador draws Senegal: Ecuador (5 points) wins the group, and either Netherlands (4 points) or Senegal (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by one goal, Netherlands advances based on goal difference. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by two goals, whichever of Senegal or Netherlands scores more goals in their final match advances; if they score the same number of goals in their final match, Netherlands advances based on having previously beaten Senegal head-to-head. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by three goals or more, Senegal advances based on goal difference.

[2.1%] Qatar beats Netherlands, Senegal beats Ecuador: Senegal (6 points) wins the group, and whichever of Netherlands (4 points) or Ecuador (4 points) loses by fewer goals advances as runner-up. If Netherlands and Ecuador lose by the same number of goals, whichever team scores more goals in their final match advances. If they both lose their final match by the same score, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Netherlands goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received only two yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Ecuador’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

Group B

Group B leader England (currently with 4 points) is in a good position to advance, barring a big loss to Wales. Team USA (2 points) and Iran (3 points), meanwhile, are in a winner-takes-all battle. And Wales (1 point) needs to win against England to have a chance.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, November 29.

England v USA: Group B - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Simon Bruty—Anychance/Getty ImagesUSA star player Christian Pulisic warms up ahead of the World Cup match against England at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 25, 2022.

[22.8%] England beats Wales, USA beats Iran: England (7 points) wins the group. Team USA (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.6%] England beats Wales, Iran beats USA: England (7 points) wins the group. Iran (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.6%] England beats Wales, Iran and USA draw: England (7 points) wins the group. Iran (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.88%] Wales and England draw, USA beats Iran: Both England (5 points) and the United States (5 points) advance. England will be the winner of the group unless Team USA beats Iran by four goals or more. If the U.S. beats Iran by five goals or more, the U.S. advances as the group winner. If the U.S. beats Iran by four goals, the next tiebreaker will be goals scored, which England leads the U.S. by four going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” England goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received zero yellow cards in previous matches, compared to the four yellow cards the U.S. has received. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[8.06%] Wales and England draw, Iran beats USA: Iran (6 points) wins the group. England (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[8.06%] Wales and England draw, Iran and USA draw: England (5 points) wins the group. Iran (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.32%] Wales beats England, USA beats Iran: Team USA (5 points) wins the group, and either England (4 points) or Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up. Wales needs to win by at least four goals to advance.

[4.34%] Wales beats England, Iran beats USA: Iran (6 points) wins the group, and either England (4 points) or Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up. Wales needs to win by at least four goals to advance.

[4.34%] Wales beats England, Iran and USA draw: England (4 points) wins the group, and Wales (4 points) advances as runner-up, unless Wales beats England by six goals or more, in which case Iran (4 points) would have a chance. If Wales beats England by 7 goals or more, Wales wins the group, and Iran advances as runner-up. If Wales beats England by six goals, Wales wins the group, and either Iran or England advances as runner-up based on goals scored, which England leads Iran by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Wales beats England 6-0, Iran draws USA 2-2), England advances because it beat Iran when the two teams met head-to-head last week.

Group C

Saudi Arabia shook up Group C last week with its shock defeat of tournament favorites Argentina. Poland (currently with 4 points) now tops the group and only needs a draw to advance. Saudi Arabia (3 points) advances with a win against Mexico, and Argentina (3 points) advances with a win against Poland. At the bottom of the table, Mexico (1 point), a team that has yet to score a goal in this tournament, needs to beat Saudi Arabia to have any hope of advancing.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, November 30.

FIFA World Cup 2022: Saudi Arabia vs Argentina
Jabin Botsford—The Washington Post/Getty ImagesSaudi Arabia fans celebrate after a goal by midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari against Argentina at Lusail Stadium on Nov. 22, 2022. Saudi Arabia upset Argentina 2-1.

[26.68%] Argentina beats Poland, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Argentina (6 points) wins the group, and either Poland (4 points) or Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Poland leads Mexico by four going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the team with more goals scored advances, which Poland leads Mexico by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Mexico beats Saudi Arabia 3-0, Argentina beats Poland 2-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Poland goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received four yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Mexico’s six. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[17.98%] Argentina beats Poland, Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw: Argentina (6 points) wins the group, and either Poland (4 points) or Saudi Arabia (4 points) advances as runner-up. Poland advances if it loses to Argentina by two goals or fewer; Saudi Arabia advances if Poland loses to Argentina by four goals or more. If Poland loses to Argentina by three goals, either Poland or Saudi Arabia advances based on whichever team scores more goals in their final match; if they score the same number of goals, Poland advances because it beat Saudi Arabia head-to-head.

[13.34%] Argentina beats Poland, Saudi Arabia beats Mexico: Both Argentina (6 points) and Saudi Arabia (6 points) advances, with the order determined by goal difference, which Argentina leads Saudi Arabia by two going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the team with more goals scored wins the group—which Argentina leads Saudi Arabia by one going into the final matches; if still tied (i.e. Argentina beats Poland 2-1, Saudi Arabia beats Mexico 3-0), Saudi Arabia wins the group because it beat Argentina head-to-head.

[12.42%] Poland and Argentina draw, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Poland (5 points) wins the group, and either Argentina (4 points) or Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up. Mexico advances if it beats Saudi Arabia by four goals or more. Argentina advances if Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by two goals or fewer. If Mexico beats Saudi Arabia by three goals, either Mexico or Argentina advances based on goals scored, which Argentina leads Mexico by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Argentina draws Poland 0-0, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia 3-0), Argentina advances because it beat Mexico head-to-head.

[8.37%] Poland and Argentina draw, Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw: Poland (5 points) wins the group. Argentina (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.9%%] Poland beats Argentina, Mexico beats Saudi Arabia: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Mexico (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.21%] Poland and Argentina draw, Saudi Arabia beats Mexico: Saudi Arabia (6 points) wins the group. Poland (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.65%] Poland beats Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Saudi Arabia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.45%] Poland beats Argentina, Saudi Arabia beats Mexico: Poland (7 points) wins the group. Saudi Arabia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

Group D

In Group D, reigning World Cup champion France (currently with 6 points) has already guaranteed its advancement to the knockout stage. Australia (3 points) advances with a win or a draw against Denmark, and Denmark (1 point) advances if it beats Australia. Tunisia (1 point) needs to beat France to have a chance at advancing, though it would still depend on the outcome of the game between Australia and Denmark.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, November 30.

France v Denmark: Group D - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty ImagesFrench forward Kylian Mbappe celebrates after he scores against Denmark at Stadium 974 on Nov. 26, 2022.

[33.8%] France beats Tunisia, Denmark beats Australia: France (9 points) wins the group. Denmark (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[18.2%] France beats Tunisia, Australia and Denmark draw: France (9 points) wins the group. Australia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[13%] France beats Tunisia, Australia beats Denmark: France (9 points) wins the group. Australia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[12.48%] France and Tunisia draw, Denmark beats Australia: France (7 points) wins the group. Denmark (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6.72%] France and Tunisia draw, Australia and Denmark draw: France (7 points) wins the group. Australia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[5.72%] Tunisia beats France, Denmark beats Australia: France (6 points) wins the group, and either Denmark (4 points) or Tunisia (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on whichever team scores more goals in their final match. If Denmark and Tunisia both win by the same number of goals, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Denmark leads Tunisia by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Denmark beats Australia 1-0, Tunisia beats France 2-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Denmark goes into the final match slightly leading on that metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Tunisia’s four yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[4.8%] France and Tunisia draw, Australia beats Denmark: France (7 points) wins the group. Australia (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.08%] Tunisia beats France, Australia and Denmark draw: France (6 points) wins the group. Tunisia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.2%] Tunisia beats France, Australia beats Denmark: France (6 points) and Australia (6 points) advances, with the order determined by goal difference, which France leads Australia by six going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which France leads Australia by four going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Tunisia beats France 2-1, Australia beats Denmark 5-0), France wins the group since it beat Australia head-to-head.

Group E

Group E was also shaken up by an early upset when Japan beat Germany last week. But Germany was given a second chance when Costa Rica beat Japan this weekend. Now every team still has a chance to qualify for the knockout stage. Spain (currently with 4 points) is guaranteed to advance if they draw or win against Japan. Japan (3 points) will advance with a win against Spain, and Costa Rica (3 points) will advance with a win against Germany. It’s not entirely in the Germans’ hands, as Germany (1 point) needs to beat Costa Rica and it needs Japan not to win against Spain in order to advance.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, December 1.

Spain v Germany: Group E - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Stefan Matzke—sampics/Corbis/Getty ImagesThe German team sings their national anthem before the match against Spain at Al Bayt Stadium on Nov. 27, 2022.

[48.8%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Germany (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[20%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Spain and Japan draw: Spain (5 points) wins the group. Germany (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[11.2%] Germany beats Costa Rica, Japan beats Spain: Japan (6 points) wins the group, and either Spain or Germany advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Spain leads Germany by eight going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Spain leads Germany by six going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Japan beats Spain 4-0, Germany beats Costa Rica 6-2), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Spain goes into the final match leading on that metric, having received only one yellow card in previous matches, compared to Germany’s three yellow cards. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[9.15%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Costa Rica (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.75%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Spain and Japan draw: Spain (5 points) wins the group. Japan (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.05%] Costa Rica beats Germany, Spain beats Japan: Spain (7 points) wins the group. Costa Rica (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.1%] Germany and Costa Rica draw, Japan beats Spain: Japan (6 points) wins the group. Spain (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[1.25%] Costa Rica beats Germany, Spain and Japan draw: Costa Rica (6 points) wins the group. Spain (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[0.7%] Costa Rica beats Germany, Japan beats Spain: Costa Rica (6 points) and Japan (6 points) advances, with the order determined by goal difference, which Japan leads Costa Rica by six going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group-winner is determined by goals scored, which Japan leads Costa Rica by one going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Costa Rica beats Germany 7-0, Japan beats Spain 6-5), Costa Rica wins the group based on having previously beaten Japan head-to-head.

Group F

In Group F, underdog Morocco (currently with 4 points) is now favorite to advance, with a win or a draw against Canada guaranteeing a spot in the Round of 16 and even a loss not ruling them out. Last World Cup’s finalist Croatia (4 points) will advance with a win or a draw, while FIFA’s No. 2-ranked team in the world Belgium (3 points) needs to beat Croatia to advance. Canada (0 points) has no chance of advancing.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday, December 1.

Belgium v Morocco: Group F - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Ayman Aref/NurPhoto/Getty ImagesMorocco fans cheer during the match against Belgium at Al Thumama Stadium on Nov. 27 2022.

[15.6%] Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco beats Canada: Croatia (7 points) and Morocco (7 points) advances, with the order determined by goal difference, which Croatia leads Morocco by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group winner is determined by goals scored, which Croatia leads Morocco by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Croatia beats Belgium 1-0, Morocco beats Canada 3-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Both teams go into their final matches even on that metric, having received two yellow cards each in previous matches. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[12.09%] Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco and Canada draw: Croatia (7 points) wins the group. Morocco (5 points) advances as the runner-up.

[11.31%] Croatia beats Belgium, Canada beats Morocco: Croatia (7 points) wins the group. Morocco (4 points) advances as the runner-up.

[13.2%] Belgium beats Croatia, Morocco beats Canada: Morocco (7 points) wins the group. Belgium (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[11.2%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Morocco beats Canada: Morocco (7 points) wins the group. Croatia (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[10.23%] Belgium beats Croatia, Morocco and Canada draw: Belgium (6 points) wins the group. Morocco (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.57%] Belgium beats Croatia, Canada beats Morocco: Belgium (6 points) wins the group, and either Croatia (4 points) or Morocco (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Croatia leads Morocco by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Croatia leads Morocco by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Croatia loses to Belgium 2-0, Morocco loses to Canada 3-2), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Both teams go into their final matches even on this metric, having received two yellow cards each in previous matches. If still tied, the order is determined by a drawing of lots.

[8.68%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Morocco and Canada draw: Croatia (5 points) wins the group, and Morocco (5 points) advances as runner-up.

[8.12%] Croatia and Belgium draw, Canada beats Morocco: Croatia (5 points) wins the group, and either Morocco (4 points) or Belgium (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Morocco leads Belgium by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Morocco also leads Belgium by one going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Croatia and Belgium draw 1-1, Canada beats Morocco 1-0), Morocco advances because it beat Belgium head-to-head.

Group G

Like France, World Cup favorite Brazil (currently with 6 points) has already secured a spot in the Round of 16, and it’s almost certainly set to top Group G. Switzerland (3 points) will advance with a win, while Cameroon (1 point) and Serbia (1 point) each need to win to have a chance at advancing, but even then it’s not guaranteed and would be dependent on the result of the other match.

The matches kick off at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, December 2.

Brazil v Switzerland: Group G - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Clive Brunskill—Getty ImagesBrazilian midfielder Casemiro celebrates after scoring against Switzerland at Stadium 974 on Nov. 28, 2022.

[32.4%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Switzerland (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[25.11%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Serbia beats Switzerland: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Serbia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[23.49%] Brazil beats Cameroon, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (9 points) wins the group. Switzerland (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[6%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Switzerland (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.65%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Serbia beats Switzerland: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Serbia (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.35%] Brazil and Cameroon draw, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (7 points) wins the group. Switzerland (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[1.6%] Cameroon beats Brazil, Switzerland beats Serbia: Brazil (6 points) and Switzerland (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Brazil leads Switzerland by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group winner is determined by goals scored, which Brazil leads Switzerland by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 1-0, Switzerland beats Serbia 2-0), Brazil wins the group based on having previously beaten Switzerland head-to-head.

[1.24%] Cameroon beats Brazil, Serbia beats Switzerland: Brazil (6 points) wins the group, and either Serbia (4 points) or Cameroon (4 points) advances as runner-up based on goal difference, which Cameroon leads Serbia by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which they go into the final matches even on. If still tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 2-1, Serbia beats Switzerland 2-0), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” Cameroon leads on this metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Serbia’s five. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[1.16%] Cameroon beats Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia draw: Brazil (6 points) wins the group, and either Switzerland (4 points) or Cameroon (4 points) advances as runner-up. If Cameroon wins by more than one goal, it would advance. If Cameroon wins by only one goal, the next tiebreaker would be goals scored, which Cameroon leads Switzerland by two going into the final matches. If they remain tied (i.e. Cameroon beats Brazil 1-0, Switzerland and Serbia draw 3-3), Switzerland advances because it beat Cameroon head-to-head.

Group H

Portugal (currently with 6 points) join France and Brazil heading into the third group stage match with a place in the knockout stage already reserved. Ghana (3 points) will advance if it wins and possibly if it draws, and South Korea (1 point) and Uruguay (1 point) each need to win to have a chance at advancing.

The matches kick off at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Friday, December 2.

Portugal v Uruguay: Group H - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
Lionel Hahn—Getty ImagesPortugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates scoring against Uruguay at the Lusail Stadium on Nov. 28, 2022.

[33.63%] Portugal beats South Korea, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Ghana (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[15.93%] Portugal beats South Korea, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Ghana (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[13.68%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Uruguay (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[9.69%] South Korea beats Portugal, Uruguay beats Ghana: Portugal (6 points) wins the group, and either Uruguay (4 points) or South Korea (4 points) advances as runner-up based on goal difference, which South Korea leads Uruguay by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which South Korea leads Uruguay by two going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. South Korea beats Portugal 1-0, Uruguay beats Ghana 3-1), the next applicable tiebreaker (since they drew head-to-head) is “fair play.” South Korea slightly leads on this metric, having received three yellow cards in previous matches, compared to Uruguay’s four. If still tied, the team that advances is determined by a drawing of lots.

[9.44%] Portugal beats South Korea, Ghana beats Uruguay: Portugal (9 points) wins the group. Ghana (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[4.59%] South Korea beats Portugal, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (6 points) wins the group, and either Ghana (4 points) or South Korea (4 points) advances as runner-up, based on goal difference, which Ghana leads South Korea by one going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which Ghana leads South Korea by three going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. South Korea beats Portugal 3-2, Uruguay and Ghana draw 0-0), Ghana advances because it beat South Korea head-to-head.

[6.48%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Uruguay and Ghana draw: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Ghana (4 points) advances as runner-up.

[3.84%] Portugal and South Korea draw, Ghana beats Uruguay: Portugal (7 points) wins the group. Ghana (6 points) advances as runner-up.

[2.72%] South Korea beats Portugal, Ghana beats Uruguay: Portugal (6 points) and Ghana (6 points) advance, with the order determined by goal difference, which Portugal leads Ghana by three going into the final matches. If they remain tied, the group winner is determined by goals scored, which Portugal and Ghana are even on going into the final matches. If still tied (i.e. South Korea beats Portugal 3-1, Ghana beats Uruguay 1-0), Portugal wins the group based on having previously beaten Ghana head-to-head.


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